It's Official
Sep. 4th, 2008 | 11:01 am
mood: a little giddy (agaist my better judgment)
I no longer simply suspect it. It's official. Hurricane Sarah = Win.
That was a pretty good speech, and she proved herself well. It wasn't a grand slam, but it was at least a triple. Some of my favorite lines:
Feisty: I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a "community organizer," except that you have actual responsibilities.
Body Blow: This is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting, and never use the word "victory" except when he's talking about his own campaign. But when the cloud of rhetoric has passed ... when the roar of the crowd fades away ... when the stadium lights go out, and those Styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot - what exactly is our opponent's plan?
Uppercut: In politics, there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers. And then there are those, like John McCain, who use their careers to promote change.
And, FTW: My fellow citizens, the American presidency is not supposed to be a journey of "personal discovery."
Oh! Snap!
All of it delivered with confidence and humor. I'm with Camille Paglia on this one. Slow Joe is going to have his hands full on October 2.
PALIN '10!
That was a pretty good speech, and she proved herself well. It wasn't a grand slam, but it was at least a triple. Some of my favorite lines:
Feisty: I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a "community organizer," except that you have actual responsibilities.
Body Blow: This is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting, and never use the word "victory" except when he's talking about his own campaign. But when the cloud of rhetoric has passed ... when the roar of the crowd fades away ... when the stadium lights go out, and those Styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot - what exactly is our opponent's plan?
Uppercut: In politics, there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers. And then there are those, like John McCain, who use their careers to promote change.
And, FTW: My fellow citizens, the American presidency is not supposed to be a journey of "personal discovery."
Oh! Snap!
All of it delivered with confidence and humor. I'm with Camille Paglia on this one. Slow Joe is going to have his hands full on October 2.
PALIN '10!
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Inter-generational Stand-off
Mar. 12th, 2008 | 05:40 pm
mood: pensive
You know, one of the most interesting things about this presidential primary season so far (apart from the way the Democrats have had their identity politics implode on them in highly entertaining ways), is that the current three contenders represent a pretty clear cross-section of generational perspectives. I think this gives us a small glimpse of what intergenerational politics is going to look like for the next twenty years, moving into the time when we will have our first Generation X presidential candidates (which I expect will happen sometime around 2016 to 2020. As an early Gen-Xer and longtime person-who-is-really-irritated-by-Baby-B
If you look at it, we've got McCain (b.1936), Clinton (b. 1947), and Barack Obama (b. 1961). That's Silent Generation vs. Baby Boomer vs. Tweener. You can clearly see this in the way they present themselves and the conduct of their campaigns:
McCain (Silent Generation):
McCain is characterized as being a "maverick", but in many ways he is typical of his generation: he seeks a safer world for his children and grandchildren, is outwardly a creature of his society's institutions, and yet aspires to be a transformational and humanizing force of leadership. He benefited from the demographic trough that allowed him and his cohort to rapidly rise in career success following the retirement of their predecessors and prior to the full maturation of the Baby Boomer human wave that assaulted the workforce in the 1970s-80s (he's been a Senator for a long time). Though the Baby Boomers condsider themselves agents of change in society, it is actually the Silent Generation that started and led almost all of the many tranformative movements that so changed the United States in the later 20th Century. McCain's campaign has been simultaneously about gravitas and subversion. That's a combination mostly unique to the Silent Generation, and has characterized the efforts of most leaders born during that time to one degree or another.
Clinton (Baby Boomer)
Hillary Clinton, even more than her husband, is the quintessential Baby Boomer. Her campaign rhetoric is full of the language of social causes and idealism and yet most of her actions throughout her career have been coldly opportunistic and her behavioral focus almost solipsistic (as evidenced in her health care task force debacle during the 1990s). The Baby Boomers are known for their idealism, arrogance, visionary goals, self-righteousness, focus on relentless improvement, ruthless self-promotion, civic generosity, and uncompromising sense of entitlement. Clinton possesses all of these characteristics in spades. In many ways, her campaign is almost a caricature of Baby Boomer political aspirations and beliefs.
Obama (Tweener)
Although not always acknowledged as a true generation, the formative experiences of those born between 1958 and 1967 are unique and disctinct from either the Baby Boomers who preceded them, or the Gen-Xers who followed them. The 1960s, for them, was not a time of awakening and global change, but rather one of simply being a kid in an uncertain world. They tend to share a strong sense of duty and community more in common with the Greatest Generation and were themselves usually the children of the Silent Generation. The Tweeners tend to resent being lumped together with the Baby Boomers and often try to distance themselves behaviorally and intellectually from that more free-wheeling and self-occupied cohort. They also see themselves very much as the direct instigators of constructive change (as opposed to the more destructive change sought by the Baby Boomers). That sound familiar? Tweeners also tend to be more engaged with the established institutions of our society, rather than opposing them. The Tweeners have also suffered the most from being so close in age, and yet sufficient junior, to the Baby Boomers. As a result, they are much more focused on obtaining tangible material benefits for themselves and their families than achieving any sort of self-fulfillment. You can read a more in-depth analysis of Obama's campaign in a generational perspective here.
So far, our two Baby Boomer presidents have been way less than spectacular. In fact, neither one of them has really even risen to the level of adequacy. Obama's campaign is interesting to me because he is making a clear change in demographic focus away from the Baby Boom and on to Gen-X and Gen-Y (The Echo Boom). He is going out of his way to differentiate himself from the Boomer approach to politics (non-partisan vs. ideological; positive vs. angry; unifying vs. divisive), and it's earning him broad appeal among younger voters. The argument is being made that he's running as the first millenial candidate, and I think there's a lot of truth in that. Whether or not he wins, we are looking at a part of the future of American politics.
Following this train of thought, what is that future going to look like? Let's look at the characteristics of the Millenials themselves (Gen-X and Gen-Y):
Generation X (51 million)
Tend to be: accepting of diversity, very pragmatic, somewhat cynical, self-reliant, individualistic, strongly independent, rule-rejecters, focused on quality of life and fun, distrustful of institutions, computer literate, multi-taskers, often feel abandoned by family and society, focused on chosen relationships rather than structured/institutional ones, anti-authoritarian.
Generation Y (75 million)
Tend to be: celebrate diversity, optimistic, self-assured, rule-makers, focused on lifestyle, computer saturated and technicaly adept, nurtured, focused on family, demanding, team-oriented, respectful of authority and institutions.
I think we can expect the level of partisan rhetoric in American politics to decline starting in 2016 if not before. By that point in time, the Baby Boomers and their ideological divisiveness will have begun a strong waning trend. Campaigns will become far more focused on personal experience through networking rather than one-way communication via mass distribution. An emphasis on authenticity will become more important. Pragmatism and optimism will become key aspects of most successful campaigns. Ideological purity will decline in importance. Inclusionary rhetoric will become ubiquitous and identity politics will become less powerful as a motivational force. Does that sound a little like the Obama campaign? If it does, that's not an accident.
As for my prediction of who will win in November, I'm a bit of heretic on that. I think McCain will win (becoming the first member of his generation to do so) because the Baby Boomers still trust the Silent Generation more than they admire themselves. The Silents led them in all the important stuff they associate themselves with. I think Obama is going to win the Democratic primary even though Baby Boomers feel little but contempt for the Millenials. The Millenials are becoming a powerful enough force in electoral politics now that they can outweigh Baby Boomer preferences here and there. After all, there are only 77 million Baby Boomers, and 126 million Millenials. But I don't think the Millenial character of his campaign has the momentum to carry him to victory in a run-off between him and the patrician/subversive McCain. Obama hasn't clearly united the Millenials outside of his own party, and as a Tweener I don't think he can. He's got the tone right, but the substance doesn't match it. He's still way too Boomer-Idealized in his policy focus. He could pull it off if he changed his message in a few key ways, but he doesn't show any sign of doing so.
But this may be the last time a Millenial-focused campaign loses a general election for a few decades.
If you look at it, we've got McCain (b.1936), Clinton (b. 1947), and Barack Obama (b. 1961). That's Silent Generation vs. Baby Boomer vs. Tweener. You can clearly see this in the way they present themselves and the conduct of their campaigns:
McCain (Silent Generation):
McCain is characterized as being a "maverick", but in many ways he is typical of his generation: he seeks a safer world for his children and grandchildren, is outwardly a creature of his society's institutions, and yet aspires to be a transformational and humanizing force of leadership. He benefited from the demographic trough that allowed him and his cohort to rapidly rise in career success following the retirement of their predecessors and prior to the full maturation of the Baby Boomer human wave that assaulted the workforce in the 1970s-80s (he's been a Senator for a long time). Though the Baby Boomers condsider themselves agents of change in society, it is actually the Silent Generation that started and led almost all of the many tranformative movements that so changed the United States in the later 20th Century. McCain's campaign has been simultaneously about gravitas and subversion. That's a combination mostly unique to the Silent Generation, and has characterized the efforts of most leaders born during that time to one degree or another.
Clinton (Baby Boomer)
Hillary Clinton, even more than her husband, is the quintessential Baby Boomer. Her campaign rhetoric is full of the language of social causes and idealism and yet most of her actions throughout her career have been coldly opportunistic and her behavioral focus almost solipsistic (as evidenced in her health care task force debacle during the 1990s). The Baby Boomers are known for their idealism, arrogance, visionary goals, self-righteousness, focus on relentless improvement, ruthless self-promotion, civic generosity, and uncompromising sense of entitlement. Clinton possesses all of these characteristics in spades. In many ways, her campaign is almost a caricature of Baby Boomer political aspirations and beliefs.
Obama (Tweener)
Although not always acknowledged as a true generation, the formative experiences of those born between 1958 and 1967 are unique and disctinct from either the Baby Boomers who preceded them, or the Gen-Xers who followed them. The 1960s, for them, was not a time of awakening and global change, but rather one of simply being a kid in an uncertain world. They tend to share a strong sense of duty and community more in common with the Greatest Generation and were themselves usually the children of the Silent Generation. The Tweeners tend to resent being lumped together with the Baby Boomers and often try to distance themselves behaviorally and intellectually from that more free-wheeling and self-occupied cohort. They also see themselves very much as the direct instigators of constructive change (as opposed to the more destructive change sought by the Baby Boomers). That sound familiar? Tweeners also tend to be more engaged with the established institutions of our society, rather than opposing them. The Tweeners have also suffered the most from being so close in age, and yet sufficient junior, to the Baby Boomers. As a result, they are much more focused on obtaining tangible material benefits for themselves and their families than achieving any sort of self-fulfillment. You can read a more in-depth analysis of Obama's campaign in a generational perspective here.
So far, our two Baby Boomer presidents have been way less than spectacular. In fact, neither one of them has really even risen to the level of adequacy. Obama's campaign is interesting to me because he is making a clear change in demographic focus away from the Baby Boom and on to Gen-X and Gen-Y (The Echo Boom). He is going out of his way to differentiate himself from the Boomer approach to politics (non-partisan vs. ideological; positive vs. angry; unifying vs. divisive), and it's earning him broad appeal among younger voters. The argument is being made that he's running as the first millenial candidate, and I think there's a lot of truth in that. Whether or not he wins, we are looking at a part of the future of American politics.
Following this train of thought, what is that future going to look like? Let's look at the characteristics of the Millenials themselves (Gen-X and Gen-Y):
Generation X (51 million)
Tend to be: accepting of diversity, very pragmatic, somewhat cynical, self-reliant, individualistic, strongly independent, rule-rejecters, focused on quality of life and fun, distrustful of institutions, computer literate, multi-taskers, often feel abandoned by family and society, focused on chosen relationships rather than structured/institutional ones, anti-authoritarian.
Generation Y (75 million)
Tend to be: celebrate diversity, optimistic, self-assured, rule-makers, focused on lifestyle, computer saturated and technicaly adept, nurtured, focused on family, demanding, team-oriented, respectful of authority and institutions.
I think we can expect the level of partisan rhetoric in American politics to decline starting in 2016 if not before. By that point in time, the Baby Boomers and their ideological divisiveness will have begun a strong waning trend. Campaigns will become far more focused on personal experience through networking rather than one-way communication via mass distribution. An emphasis on authenticity will become more important. Pragmatism and optimism will become key aspects of most successful campaigns. Ideological purity will decline in importance. Inclusionary rhetoric will become ubiquitous and identity politics will become less powerful as a motivational force. Does that sound a little like the Obama campaign? If it does, that's not an accident.
As for my prediction of who will win in November, I'm a bit of heretic on that. I think McCain will win (becoming the first member of his generation to do so) because the Baby Boomers still trust the Silent Generation more than they admire themselves. The Silents led them in all the important stuff they associate themselves with. I think Obama is going to win the Democratic primary even though Baby Boomers feel little but contempt for the Millenials. The Millenials are becoming a powerful enough force in electoral politics now that they can outweigh Baby Boomer preferences here and there. After all, there are only 77 million Baby Boomers, and 126 million Millenials. But I don't think the Millenial character of his campaign has the momentum to carry him to victory in a run-off between him and the patrician/subversive McCain. Obama hasn't clearly united the Millenials outside of his own party, and as a Tweener I don't think he can. He's got the tone right, but the substance doesn't match it. He's still way too Boomer-Idealized in his policy focus. He could pull it off if he changed his message in a few key ways, but he doesn't show any sign of doing so.
But this may be the last time a Millenial-focused campaign loses a general election for a few decades.